COP30: Carbon Market Insights

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COP30, held in Belém, Brazil, from 10–21 November 2025, marked the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement and focused on key issues like adaptation finance, carbon markets, and new voluntary initiatives. Negotiations and side events achieved several concrete steps, but the final decisions drew criticism for omitting clear language on fossil fuel phaseout and for not delivering binding commitments.

However, it reinforced the centrality of carbon markets in global climate strategy - governments continued to show backing of markets with Article 6 was a central agenda item, and nature based solutions received much needed funding.

COP30 In Numbers 

COP30 marked a pivotal moment for global climate negotiations, hosted for the first time in a tropical rainforest region - Belém, Brazil, the gateway to the Amazon. This summit was not only symbolic but also substantive, shaping the future of carbon markets and nature-based solutions.

• 10 years post-Paris Agreement
• 13 days of negotiations
• 193 countries represented
• 56,000+ delegates – second largest COP
• 74% of global emissions represented by national climate action plans
• 2,600+ UNFCCC policy documents referencing COP30

Government Coalitions Driving Carbon Markets  

Governments reaffirmed their commitments to carbon markets through new coalitions and principles on both the voluntary and compliance sides. 

Coalition to Grow Carbon Markets 
The Coalition to Grow Carbon Markets is a first-of-its-kind, government-led initiative focused on building confidence in voluntary carbon markets, officially launched during London Climate Action Week 2025. Co-chaired by Kenya, Singapore, and the UK, with France and Panama as founding members, the coalition now has ten members and political backing from countries such as Indonesia, Peru, and Brazil.

During COP30 it launched its set of Shared Principles for high-integrity credits and a Plan of Action, sending a clear signal to businesses that carbon markets can be trusted as a tool for climate action. The coalition’s Secretariat is hosted by VCMI, working closely with partners and a dedicated Business Advisory Group to ensure alignment between policy and market needs. 

Read Climate Impact Partners' reaction to the Shared Principles here. 

Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets
Brazil also convened 18 countries to form the Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets. Brazil sees harmonization of carbon markets as essential to creating liquidity, predictability, and transparency, while safeguarding environmental integrity and ensuring a just transition. With over 40 carbon taxes and 35 emissions trading systems already in place globally, the country argues that alignment is critical for scaling climate action.

The coalitions seeks to:

• Establish shared standards for carbon credit trading
• Connect different systems to boost liquidity and predictability
• Define best practices for Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV)
• Create common accounting standards
• Ensure the integrity of offset mechanisms

Further details and next steps are eagerly anticipated.

Article 6 Updates

Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which enables countries to cooperate in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and trading carbon credits, dominated discussions as a cornerstone for scaling climate finance. MSCI projects that Article 6 could account for 50% of global carbon credit demand by 2040 and the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), representing over 45 million companies worldwide, called for a strengthening of governance under Article 6 to create an environment for business engagement. The focus was on working through the remaining blockers to operationalize Article 6.2 and Article 6.4 (PACM).

• Article 6.2 - enables two countries to trade emissions reductions and removals to help countries meet climate targets (NDCs) or other international purposes, such as voluntary and compliance schemes like CORSIA
  
• Article 6.4 PACM - the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM) is a  global crediting mechanism centrally Governed under a UN supervisory body
  

Inside the negotiating rooms, the tone shifted from drafting rules to implementation oversight. Scrutiny on accounting integrity and double counting intensified, and while reporting inconsistencies were flagged during the first ITMO transfers, these are expected to improve with upcoming Biennial Transparency Reports. Outside the rooms, countries continued to form alliances and frameworks to operationalize Article 6, signalling that the mechanism is moving from concept to reality e.g. Bhutan and Singapore announced that they are looking to move their A6.2 partnership to the next stage, calling for carbon developers to propose project ideas. 

The implications for the VCM remain uncertain, but a key question is whether corresponding adjustments will become the norm. PACM methodologies and integrity frameworks are set to influence VCM standards - for example, Gold Standard will require Paris Alignment for all projects from 1 Jan 2026 - driving harmonization and reducing fragmentation.

Nature in the Spotlight

Although no formal deforestation roadmap made it into the final COP30 decision text, the financial flows tell a different story. As reported in Quantum Commodity Intelligence, market participants announced $1.1 billion worth of investments between November 3-21, a 42% increase on COP29. Strikingly, $880 million (78%) of this finance was directed towards nature based solutions (NBS), signalling strong confidence in NBS as a climate solution and the emergence of large new funds dedicated to forest protection.

One of the most significant announcements was the Scaling J-REDD+ Coalition, a global initiative designed to accelerate finance and action for forest conservation through high-integrity jurisdictional REDD+ programs. This coalition brings together donor governments, tropical forest countries, investors, intermediaries, NGOs, Indigenous Peoples, and leading standards such as Verra and ART Trees. Its mission is to restore confidence in REDD+ and increase demand for jurisdictional programs aligned with rigorous standards like VM0048.

Brazil also launched the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), an innovative mechanism offering long-term financial incentives to more than 70 developing countries for protecting tropical forests. With $5 billion in initial pledges and ambitions to reach $25 billion and eventually scale to $125 billion, TFFF represents one of the most ambitious forest finance initiatives to date. The facility uses a blended-finance model to pay countries for every hectare of forest they keep standing, with at least 20% of funds earmarked for Indigenous Peoples and local communities. Norway pledged $3 billion over a decade, while Brazil and Indonesia committed $1 billion each. Countries exceeding a 0.5% deforestation rate will see reduced payments, reinforcing accountability. 

COP30 introduced new mechanisms for forest protection and equity, but their practical effect will depend on future implementation and funding.

Further Developments and Outlook

The final COP30 text admits that “1.5°C overshoot is now inevitable,” shifting the focus from prevention to managing climate damage. Success will require clear targets, binding commitments, and accountability from governments and businesses. Crucially, those commitments and pledges must be honoured and implemented.

Immediate next steps include opening the Loss and Damage Fund for proposals on 15 December 2025, with initial grants expected by July 2026. Voluntary fossil fuel and deforestation roadmaps will be presented in April 2026, and their absence at COP30 was a key criticism from many parties. The first trade dialogue will be held at the June 2026 Bonn climate talks.

By 2030, countries must submit their fourth-round NDCs-the next major test of whether global action and ambition are rising.